Brent Crude ↔ US Gasoline Price Predictor
FRED Economic Data • Indexed Time Series • OLS Regression Model
It has been stated by President Trump that the United States does not need the Strait of Hormuz. Our analysis shows that while the US may not get a large percentage of its oil from the strait, global oil prices have a close connection to the price of gasoline within the US. The regression model below leverages FRED data on Brent Crude oil prices and Monthly Average Gasoline prices to predict the US National Average cost of gasoline.
AAA Last Month
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est. ▲--
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Predicted
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Current National Avg
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gasprices.aaa.com
Indexed Price Comparison (Base = 100)
Train Set
R-Squared
0.6329
Avg Error (MAE)
$0.0578/gal
N Observations
325
95% Prediction Interval
± $0.1662/gal
Mar 1992 - Mar 2019
Test Set
R-Squared
0.6533
Avg Error (MAE)
$0.0888/gal
N Observations
84
95% Prediction Interval
± $0.1662/gal
Apr 2019 - Mar 2026
Predicted vs Actual Gas Price (Apr 2019 – Present)
Brent Δ vs Gas Δ — Scatter with Regression Line